Developing Zero-Emission Bus and Truck Markets Will Require a Mix of Financial Incentives, Sale Mandates, and Demonstration Projects

California has a number of programs intended to encourage the introduction of zero- and near-zero emission vehicle (ZEV) technologies into the medium- and heavy-duty truck markets. Meeting the goals of these programs will require the sale of large numbers of battery-electric and hydrogen fuel cell transit buses and trucks by 2025 and beyond. However, several barriers to widespread adoption of these technologies will need to be addressed, including their purchase price, utility, durability and reliability, as well as the cost of energy and the availability of refueling infrastructure. Policies such as mandates or incentives will likely be necessary to overcome these barriers and the uncertainty of adopting a new, unproven technology. These policies must make economic sense to both the bus and truck manufacturers and the vehicle purchasers if they are to be successful in the long term. To gain a better understanding of the financial barriers for ZEV bus and truck adoption, researchers at UC Davis conducted technology and cost assessments for batteryelectric and fuel cell vehicles in the medium- and heavy-duty truck sector. High-level findings and the policy implications of this research are summarized in this brief

Technology, Sustainability, and Marketing of Battery Electric and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Medium-Duty and Heavy-Duty Trucks and Buses in 2020-2040

The objective of this study is to project the introduction of battery-electric and fuel cell technologies into the medium-duty and heavy-duty vehicle markets and to identify which markets will be most suitable for each of technologies and the factors (technical, economic, operational) which will be most critical to their successful introduction. The use of renewable energy sources to generate electricity and produce hydrogen are key considerations of the analysis. The present status of the battery-electric and hydrogen/fuel cell technologies are reviewed in detail and the futures of these technologies are projected. The design and performance of various types of buses and trucks are described based on detailed simulations of the various electrified vehicles. The total cost of ownership (TCO) of each bus/truck type were calculated using EXCEL spreadsheets and their market prospects projected for 2020-2040. It was concluded that before any of the electrified vehicles can be cost competitive with the corresponding diesel powered vehicle, the unit cost of batteries must be $80-100/kWh and the unit cost of the fuel cell system must be$80-100/kW. The long term economics of battery-electric buses and trucks looks more favorable than that for the fuel cell/hydrogen option if the range requirement (miles) for the vehicle can be met using batteries. This is primarily due to the significantly lower energy operating cost ($/mi) using electricity than hydrogen.View the NCST Project Webpag

Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy-duty Truck Technology, Markets, and Policy Assessments for California

This report assesses zero emissions medium- and heavy-duty vehicle technologies, their associated costs, projected market share, and possible policy mandates and incentives to support their adoption. Cost comparisons indicate that battery-electric transit buses and city delivery trucks are the most economically attractive of the zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) based on their break-even mileage being a small fraction of the expected total mileage. These ZEVs using fuel cells are also attractive for a hydrogen cost of $5/kg. The most economically unattractive vehicle types for ZEV adoption are long-haul trucks and inter-city buses. Developing mandates for buses and trucks will be more difficult than for passenger cars for several reasons, including the large differences in the size and cost of the vehicles and the ways they are used in commercial, profit-oriented fleets. The best approach will be to develop separate mandates for classes of vehicles that have similar sizes, cost characteristics, use patterns, and ownership/business models. These mandates should be coupled to incentives that vary by vehicle type/class and by year or accumulated sales volume, to account for the effects of expected price reductions with time

Do output contractions trigger democratic change?

Does faster economic growth increase pressure for democratic change, or reduce it? Using data for 154 countries for the period 1963-2007, we examine the short-run relationship between economic growth and moves toward and away from greater democracy. To address the potential endogeneity of economic growth, we use variation in precipitation, temperatures, and commodity prices as instruments for a country’s rate of economic growth. Our results indicate that more rapid economic growth reduces the short-run likelihood of institutional change toward democracy. Output contractions due to adverse weather shocks appear to have a particularly important impact on the timing of democratic change.economic growth, democratization, weather, commodity prices

Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change?

Does faster economic growth increase pressure for democratic change, or reduce it? Using data for 154 countries for the period 1963-2007, we examine the short-run relationship between economic growth and moves toward and away from greater democracy. To address the potential endogeneity of economic growth, we use variation in precipitation, temperatures, and commodity prices as instruments for a country’s rate of economic growth. Our results indicate that more rapid economic growth reduces the short-run likelihood of institutional change toward democracy. Output contractions due to adverse weather shocks appear to have a particularly important impact on the timing of democratic change.weather, democratization, economic growth, commodity prices

The Entrepreneurial Adjustment Process in Disequilibrium

Despite the fact that the main contribution of entrepreneurship theory to economics has been to provide an account of the performance of markets in disequilibrium, little empirical research on entrepreneurship has examined firm entry and exit in this context. In this paper, we attempt to redress this by modelling the interrelationship between firm entry and exit rates in disequilibrium. Using a data base of Dutch retail industries over the period 1980-2001, we are able to distinguish between displacement (entry causing exit) and replacement (exit causing entry) effects. We introduce a new methodological approach which allows us to investigate whether the relations under consideration differ between situations of undershooting’ (the actual number of firms is below the equilibrium number) and ‘overshooting’ (vice versa). We find that the equilibriumrestoring mechanisms are different in these two situations – being faster in over than undershoots. Our estimation results also imply that for undershooting, a lack of competition between incumbent firms contributes to restoration of equilibrium (creating room for new-firm entry) while in overshooting competition induced by new firms (in particular strong displacement) causes the number of firms to move towards equilibrium. The research helps to embed entrepreneurship theory into mainstream economics in a manner that adds greater insight into the performance of markets in disequilibrium.

The Entrepreneurial Adjustment Process in Disequilibrium: Entry and Exit when Markets Under and Over Shoot

The main contribution of entrepreneurship theory to economics is to provide an account of market performance in disequilibrium but little empirical research has examined firm entry and exit in this context. We redress this by modelling the interrelationship between firm entry and exit in disequilibrium. Introducing a new methodology we investigate whether this interrelationship differs between market 'undershooting' (the actual number of firms is below the equilibrium number) and 'overshooting' (vice versa). We find that equilibrium-restoring mechanisms are faster in over than in undershoots. The results imply that in undershoots a lack of competition between incumbent firms contributes to restoration of equilibrium (creating room for new-firm entry) while in overshoots competition induced by new firms (in particular strong displacement) helps restore equilibrium.entry, exit, equilibrium, industrial organization, undershooting, overshooting

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment On New Firm Survival in the UK: Evidence For Static v. Dynamic Industries

The paper examines the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the survival of business start-ups. FDI has potential for both negative displacement/competition effects as well as positive knowledge spillover and linkage effects on new ventures. We find a net positive effect for the whole dataset. However, a major contribution of the paper is to outline and test an argument that this effect is likely to be comprised of a net negative effect in dynamic industries (high churn: firm entry plus exit relative to the stock of firms) alongside a net positive effect in static (low churn) industries. We find evidence to support this view. The results identify new effects of globalisation on enterprise development with associated challenges for industrial policy.new firms, foreign direct investment, dynamic industries

Those Birds in the Fat Large Leafy Tree

Those Birds in the Fat Large Leafy Tre